# Prediction Market Math (predictionmarketmath.org)

> Prediction Market Math is an independent mathematical research initiative and client-side probabilistic verification suite for Prediction Markets & Binary Financial Derivatives Probability.

## Mission
To provide rigorous probabilistic analysis, open-source verification tools, empirical calibration datasets, and quantitative education for prediction markets (Arrow-Debreu securities, Polymarket, Kalshi, 1win Prediction Markets, PredictIt), demonstrating pricing mechanics, Brier score decomposition, and fee drag dynamics.

## Core Interactive Tools
- [Probability Converter](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/tools/probability-converter/): Multi-format probability and decimal/American odds converter.
- [Arbitrage Scanner](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/tools/arbitrage-scanner/): Real-time binary market synthetic hedge and cross-venue arbitrage calculator.
- [Kelly Criterion Calculator](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/tools/kelly-calculator/): Optimal fraction bet sizer with fee drag and variance penalties.
- [Calibration Analyzer](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/tools/calibration-analyzer/): Brier score and Murphy decomposition validator.

## Commercial & Platform Benchmarks
- [Platform Fee Benchmark](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/benchmarks/prediction-markets-fee-comparison/): Independent audit of 1win vs Polymarket vs Kalshi vs Betfair fee drag, settlement taxes, and capital preservation with interactive calculator.

## Applied Research Hub & Open Data
- [Research Hub & Data Catalog](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/research/): Open Science data suite, 5,000-contract calibration datasets, and automated Python 3 test runners.
- [5,000-Contract Calibration Preprint](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/research/prediction-market-calibration-study/): Academic study evaluating Murphy’s decomposition (REL = 0.000351, RES = 0.099319), favourite-longshot bias, and asymptotic Kelly wealth degradation.

## Quantitative Lexicon
- [Quantitative Glossary](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/learn/glossary/): 35 foundational prediction market terms with closed-form mathematical equations and worked examples.

## Educational Articles
- [Knowledge Hub](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/learn/): Peer-reviewed quantitative research on implied probabilities, cross-market arbitrage, Kelly staking, and market efficiency.

## Multilingual Support
- [English Version](https://predictionmarketmath.org/en/): International research portal and tool suite.
- [Versão em Português](https://predictionmarketmath.org/pt/): Portal de pesquisa e ferramentas matemáticas para o Brasil.
- [Versión en Español](https://predictionmarketmath.org/es/): Portal de investigación y herramientas para América Latina.
- [Русская версия](https://predictionmarketmath.org/ru/): Исследовательский портал и аналитические инструменты для СНГ.

## Operational Model & Commercial Disclosure
Prediction Market Math operates independently by auditing third-party prediction market platforms and providing reproducible quantitative simulations. All verification tools run 100% locally in user browsers via native Web APIs, with zero credentials or private data transmitted to external servers. To sustain our open research lab, Prediction Market Math maintains transparent affiliate partnerships with investigated networks (notably 1win Prediction Markets), receiving referral compensation when users access live operator environments through disclosed gateway routes.

## Optional
- [Full Specification](https://predictionmarketmath.org/llms-full.txt): Complete architectural specifications, mathematical formulas, and probability proofs.
- [GitHub](https://github.com/predictionmarketmath-labs): Open-source verification tools, simulation scripts, and reproducibility benchmarks.